By Don DeBat

Apr. 23, 2025 – Wandering into the dark mist of 2025, home buyers and mortgage seekers were perplexed, wondering what the future holds.

But despite threats of international tariffs, a roller coaster stock market, and mortgage interest rates hovering near 7 percent, North Side home buyers ignored negative headlines and continued to sign purchase contracts.

“The market surprised us. March 2025 existing home sales on the North Side increased by a solid 8.4 percent compared with March of 2024,” reported Realtor John Irving of Baird & Warner, Inc. “This is rather amazing when you consider March 2025 inventory levels continued to drop 23.8 percent compared with March of 2024.”

Year-to-date for-sale existing-home listings are currently running 22.4 percent lower than the same period in 2024, which was a record year for low inventories, Irwin said.

“Large open-house turnouts and multiple-offer contracts continue on new listings as a result,” noted Irwin, co-author, with Jackie Lafferty of Baird & Warner, of the April 2025 Market Analysis for Chicago’s North Side. (Left) John Irwin and Jackie Lafferty

The analysis covers four key areas: Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Near North/Gold Coast, and North Center.

If the market continues on its current trajectory, Irwin believes we will continue to see multiple offers and rising home prices until inventory levels can begin to catch up to demand.

On April 17, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported that benchmark 30-year fixed home loans rose to 6.83 percent, up from 6.62 percent a week earlier. A year ago, lenders were quoting 7.1 percent on 30-year loans.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up but remains below the 7 percent threshold for the 13th consecutive week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “At this time last year, rates reached 7.1 percent while purchase application demand was 13 percent lower than it is today, a clear sign that this year’s spring home-buying season is off to a stronger start.”

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage on April 17 was 6.03 percent, up from 5.82 percent a week earlier. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.39 percent.

The survey is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who place a 20 percent down payment and have excellent credit.

More details from the Baird & Warner survey

Median home prices. March 2025 median home prices rose a whopping 9.2 percent compared with March 2024. Three of the four neighborhoods reported increases, with Lakeview posting the only decrease at 4.9 percent.

“With record low inventories, home prices are expected to spike,” Irwin predicted. “However, unlike the suburbs and other large cities across the country, Chicago prices have remained relatively low for the past few years.”

New listings. March 2025 new listings were down 10.5 percent compared with March 2024. Near North/Gold Coast and Lincoln Park (right) new listings reported decreases, Lakeview new listings were flat, and North Center new listings were up 3.1 percent. When looking at March 2025 new listings by price point, only mid-priced homes from $500,000 to $1 million had a slight 1 percent increase over March 2024. The other three price points had decreases ranging from 13.5 to 15 percent. Photo by Jon Bilous

Inventory supply. The Near North/Gold Coast neighborhoods, which traditionally have the highest monthly inventory supply, dropped a hefty 29.1 percent to 3.9 months of inventory. The other three neighborhoods have a supply of inventory of 1.3 to 6 months.

“Seven months is considered the dividing line between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market,” Irwin said. “The current inventory supply is historically low.”

Home sales. Transactions rose 8.4 percent in March 2025 compared with March 2024. Three of the four neighborhoods in the Baird & Warner analysis reported decreases and Near North/Gold Coast had a decrease of 8.4 percent.

Homes priced over $500,000 reported increases while homes priced under $500,000 reported decreases.

Units under contract. Homes that went under contract in March 2025 rose 1.4 percent compared with March 2024.

Near North/Gold Coast and Lakeview (left) reported an increase, while Lincoln Park decreased. There was no change in North Center. Adobe Stock

Homes priced over $2 million and between $500,000 to $1 million reported increases while homes priced under $500,000 and between $1 million and $2 million had decreases.

“It should be noted that the homes that went under contract in March will probably close in April, giving us an indication of next month’s home sales,” Irwin said.

Market uncertainty keeps inventory low

“With the current turmoil at the national and local levels, events continue to unfold. This makes it impossible to predict with certainty how our local real estate business will be affected,” Irwin said.

One thing that is certain is that the market needs a major influx of inventory, according to Irwin, but many homeowners, he says, are still reluctant to let go of their current 3 percent-plus interest loans on their current homes.

“Political and economic uncertainty along with perceived or actual rising crime rates are also keeping sellers on the sidelines,” he said.

So, the dark mist cloaking the 2025 housing market may likely continue.